China - The Road to Being a Superpower

Over the past decade, China has had one of the world’s most dynamic economies. It now has the 2^nd largest economy in the world and is widely considered to be the next global superpower.

Unfortunately for China, it has some severe geopolitical challenges to overcome on its quest to become a superpower. These challenges are South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. All three countries have the geographical, historical, and political incentive to act as barriers to China’s rise to global dominance.

Geography of China:

China’s land borders in Asia are among some of the most secure in the world. To the south lie the steaming jungles of Indo-China. As the US found during the Vietnam War, these jungles are easily defended and essentially impassable for invaders. The Himalaya Mountains and Gobi Desert then act as barriers that run all along the southern, western, and northern borders. These land barriers protect almost all of China and leave its maritime borders as the only borders that are exposed.

China’s Naval Challenges:

In order to secure its maritime borders, China needs to dominate the peninsula and islands that lie off of its eastern coast. Unfortunately, China does not control this area. Instead, the Korean Peninsula is divided between North and South Korea, the Island of Taiwan is controlled by the Republic of China, and the Ryukyu Islands and Japanese Archipelago is controlled by Japan.

Historical Perspective:

During WW2, Japan used its colonies in Korea and Taiwan to invade mainland China. It then proceeded to conquer the area highlighted in lime green before being defeated by the US.

After WW2, the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China engaged in a civil war for control of the mainland. This civil war ended with the Republic of China being exiled to Taiwan, where it still resides today. This war is technically still unresolved.

Korea exited WW2 divided into North and South Korea. In 1950, North Korea tried to unify the peninsula by invading South Korea. This started the Korean War, which ended in a stalemate when the US intervened on behalf of the South and China on behalf of the North. This war is also technically unresolved.

Conclusion:

The memories of Japan’s WW2 invasion are why the eastern border is so critical to China. It is also why the issue of control over Taiwan and the separation of North and South Korea are so important to the foreign policy of China. This policy will naturally conflict with the sovereignty of South Korea, Japan, and the Republic of China. All three countries are modern nations with strong militaries and, more importantly, are close military allies of the US. This is why they are uniquely positioned to act as barriers to China’s rise as a superpower.