Iran: Similarities to the German Empire

From 1871 to 1914, the German Empire was an emerging nation that disrupted the status quo in Europe. This disruption was caused by Germany pursuing its geographical, economical, and political imperatives at the expense of its neighbors.

In many ways, I see modern day Iran as being similar to the German Empire. It has many of the same imperatives that Germany did and I see great potential for Iran to disrupt the status quo in the Middle East like Germany did in Europe.

The German Empire:

Germany’s actions from 1871 to 1914 were a result of its history, geography, and population demographics.

1. From the 900’s to the late 1700’s Germany, as the Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation, was the dominant power on the European continent.

2. Germany’s most lucrative economic regions (the Ruhr River Valley, Silesia, and Alsace-Lorraine) were located on borders with hostile powers.

3. Germany’s population had recently experienced rapid growth to become one of the largest in Europe. It also contained a large number of minority populations (French in Blue, Polish in Yellow, Lithuanian in Orange).

Iran’s Prestigious History:

Iran also has a prestigious imperial past. In Iran’s case, this past came in the form of the Persian Empire, which dominated the Middle East two thousand years ago. Since that time, many smaller versions of the Persian Empire have emerged to dominate parts of the Middle East. The individual dynasties are not as important as the fact that Iran has a very long and prestigious past of dominating the Middle East.

Iran’s Economic Driver:

Like many countries in the Middle East, Iran is rich in oil. It possesses the 3^rd largest estimated oil reserves and 4^th largest proven reserves in the world. It also exported close to 2.4M barrels of oil per day in 2010. This resulted in 2010 oil exports of close to $78B or 85% of the country’s total exports.

These reserves are mostly located on Iran’s western border with Iraq and Kuwait or in the Persian Gulf. The oil fields (in black) also fall on the western side of the Zagros Mountains, which act as natural barriers for Iran. This puts the economic region in Iran right on the exposed border of hostile neighbors.

Iran’s Demographics:

Over the past 60 years, Iran’s population has more than tripled from approximately 20M in 1950 to approximately 73M in 2010. This has resulted in Iran having a large, but very young population. In 2010, it was estimated that almost two-thirds of Iran’s population was under the age of 30.

This population also contained a large number of ethnic minorities. Ethnic Persians (green) made up approximately 61% of the Iranian population with Kurds (blue), Lurish (red), and Baloch (yellow) making up sizeable minorities. Many of these minorities are also located close to the oil rich western border that was discussed above.

Conclusion:

With the US now pulling out of Iraq, there will be a power vacuum on Iran’s western border. Iran is highly motivated to protect this border. This defensive motivation may lead Iran to take bold action to secure its oil wealth and stabilize potential civil unrest in its population.

Iran is in a pattern that is similar to the one followed by the 19^th and early 20^th century German Empire. It will be interesting to see if Iran follows this pattern to its logical conclusion and invades its neighbor Iraq like Germany did with Russia and France.