Iraq - Middle Eastern Borderland

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article explaining why Iran is incentivized to be a disruptive force in the Middle East. Since then, Iran has begun to publicly posture with the US over control of the oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz. This posturing is the first sign that Iran is seeking to disrupt the status quo in the Middle East. Along with protecting its oil trade, Iran’s aim is to control the Middle East’s borderland – Iraq. In this post, I will address why Iraq is a perfect example of a borderland and why I believe Iran will make an attempt to control it.

Geography:

Iraq is the natural borderland between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. It also combines with Syria, its western neighbor, to form the borderland between the Arab and Turkic lands.

Its low terrain and lack of mountains give it very little natural boundaries. Its position on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers also makes it a valuable commercial and agrarian resource for its neighbors.

Lastly, it is located in the middle of the Middle East and shares borders with Iran, Kuwait, Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. This makes it the logical launching point for any invasion of these countries.

History:

Iraq has played important parts in many Empires that controlled the Middle East. These empires included the Persian (Iranian) Empires from 600BC to the 6^th century AD, the Islamic (Arabian) Caliphate from the 6^th to 13^th centuries, and the Ottoman (Turkish) Empire from the 13^th to 20^th centuries. It was only after the British took control of the Middle East from the Ottomans defeating them in WW1, that modern day Iraq was created out of what had historically been a Middle Eastern province.

Demographics:

Iraq’s population of approximately 30M contains a large proportion of ethnic minorities with 20%-25% of its population being Kurds (Yellow) and Turks (Orange).

Its majority population, which is Arab, is also split along religious lines. 60%-65% of its Arab population is Shiite Muslim (Red), while the other 35%-40% are Sunni Muslim.

This creates the demographic mess that is typically found in borderlands. The Shiite Arabs are drawn to Iran, which is the only other Shiite country in the Middle East; the Sunni Arabs are attracted to the other Sunni Arab states in the area (Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc); and the Kurds and Turks feel an affinity with their brethren in Turkey. This makes it possible for all of Iraq’s neighbors to claim rightful sovereignty over a portion of its population.

Conclusion:

In addition to the traditional borderland complications, Iraq possesses an abundance of a lucrative resource - oil. It ranks in the top 3 in the world for proven reserves and close to 95% of its 2010 exports were oil related.

The oil reserves (starred to the right) are located mainly in the Shiite dominated region on Iran’s border. This gives the Iranian’s an economic, as well as demographic, reason to claim sovereignty over this region of Iraq. It is also the reason that I believe Iran will move to control this Middle Eastern borderland.

With the US drawdown in Iraq complete, an opportunity has been created for Iran to begin exerting itself in Iraq. Iran has the geographic, economic, and demographic motivation to press for control over this Middle Eastern borderland and that is why it is making so many aggressive moves in the Middle East.